[
  {
    "start_time": 1.4600000000000004,
    "end_time": 8.3,
    "text": "Good morning. China has decoupled from the United States for agricultural products, which",
    "confidence": -0.14807345446418313
  },
  {
    "start_time": 8.3,
    "end_time": 15.28,
    "text": "is herding American farmers who were dependent on exports to China, but who is now well supplied",
    "confidence": -0.14807345446418313
  },
  {
    "start_time": 15.28,
    "end_time": 22.5,
    "text": "by Brazil and Russia. We're seeing the same decoupling in energy, and China has developed",
    "confidence": -0.14807345446418313
  },
  {
    "start_time": 22.5,
    "end_time": 29.06,
    "text": "new sources of supply from Russia and Iran. That's what we believe anyway. This is from",
    "confidence": -0.14807345446418313
  },
  {
    "start_time": 29.06,
    "end_time": 36.36,
    "text": "April. Propane is liquefied petroleum gas, and China used to be one of the biggest buyers of",
    "confidence": -0.08355400007065028
  },
  {
    "start_time": 36.36,
    "end_time": 46.72,
    "text": "U.S. propane after Japan. Suddenly, China stopped buying it, and the price collapsed by over 30%",
    "confidence": -0.08355400007065028
  },
  {
    "start_time": 46.72,
    "end_time": 55.06,
    "text": "in a single month. This had been an important export for American energy producers, especially in",
    "confidence": -0.08355400007065028
  },
  {
    "start_time": 55.36,
    "end_time": 62.76,
    "text": "the tailpatch. And China was a huge buyer of propane and other LPG, especially for its plastics",
    "confidence": -0.10047615898980035
  },
  {
    "start_time": 62.76,
    "end_time": 73.52,
    "text": "industry. The bilateral trade in LPG was running about $1 billion a month, and 60% of China's LPG",
    "confidence": -0.10047615898980035
  },
  {
    "start_time": 73.52,
    "end_time": 81.02,
    "text": "was U.S. sourced. But then the tariffs came from both sides. At the time, the retaliatory tariffs",
    "confidence": -0.10047615898980035
  },
  {
    "start_time": 81.02,
    "end_time": 89.42,
    "text": "on U.S. exports to China were 125%. Those did not last long, but it was long enough.",
    "confidence": -0.03776267300481382
  },
  {
    "start_time": 90.1,
    "end_time": 95.56,
    "text": "Chinese buyers rushed to find other sources, and they found them. They found other suppliers",
    "confidence": -0.03776267300481382
  },
  {
    "start_time": 95.56,
    "end_time": 105.58,
    "text": "elsewhere. Chinese plants stood to lose $770 a ton on American propane, but by switching to",
    "confidence": -0.03776267300481382
  },
  {
    "start_time": 105.58,
    "end_time": 112.16,
    "text": "Middle East suppliers, they could stay in business. So much of the trade today between China and its",
    "confidence": -0.08545995009572882
  },
  {
    "start_time": 112.16,
    "end_time": 119.36,
    "text": "trading partners is outside Western systems. And so we can only guess how China's demand is being",
    "confidence": -0.08545995009572882
  },
  {
    "start_time": 119.36,
    "end_time": 127.16,
    "text": "met and by whom and at what prices. We do know that the U.S. was China's biggest supplier of propane,",
    "confidence": -0.08545995009572882
  },
  {
    "start_time": 127.82,
    "end_time": 134.76,
    "text": "then suddenly China wasn't buying any at all. We can safely assume that Iran stepped up,",
    "confidence": -0.08545995009572882
  },
  {
    "start_time": 134.76,
    "end_time": 142.0,
    "text": "because the April-May period earlier this year saw liquefied propane as Tehran's largest",
    "confidence": -0.07479239201200182
  },
  {
    "start_time": 142.0,
    "end_time": 150.16,
    "text": "non-oil export. American policymakers also assume that and have taken massive action",
    "confidence": -0.07479239201200182
  },
  {
    "start_time": 150.16,
    "end_time": 158.66,
    "text": "against Iranian sales of LPG after the collapse in U.S. exports. The goal of those efforts is to",
    "confidence": -0.07479239201200182
  },
  {
    "start_time": 158.66,
    "end_time": 162.68,
    "text": "exert pressure on a sector involved in significant exports to China.",
    "confidence": -0.07906068663999259
  },
  {
    "start_time": 164.38,
    "end_time": 171.18,
    "text": "These are the press releases from state and treasury, but analysts are skeptical the shippers",
    "confidence": -0.07906068663999259
  },
  {
    "start_time": 171.18,
    "end_time": 178.4,
    "text": "can even be sanctioned at all, let alone that the new trade routes from Iran to China will be disrupted.",
    "confidence": -0.07906068663999259
  },
  {
    "start_time": 180.20000000000002,
    "end_time": 187.24,
    "text": "That's propane and other LPG, liquefied petroleum gas. Now bad news is hitting",
    "confidence": -0.07906068663999259
  },
  {
    "start_time": 187.24,
    "end_time": 195.5,
    "text": "other energy market sectors. Crude oil, liquefied natural gas, and coal exports from the United",
    "confidence": -0.07294041769845146
  },
  {
    "start_time": 195.5,
    "end_time": 203.48,
    "text": "States to China went basically to zero in June. China's tariffs on these products were lower",
    "confidence": -0.07294041769845146
  },
  {
    "start_time": 203.48,
    "end_time": 210.7,
    "text": "than for LPG, just 10 to 15 percent, but those were high enough to push Chinese buyers to source",
    "confidence": -0.07294041769845146
  },
  {
    "start_time": 210.7,
    "end_time": 219.24,
    "text": "from elsewhere. China is the world's biggest buyer of crude oil, and in June 2024 China bought",
    "confidence": -0.0827090677462126
  },
  {
    "start_time": 219.24,
    "end_time": 229.86,
    "text": "$800 million of crude from U.S. suppliers. In June 2025 that number is zero. Last month U.S. sales",
    "confidence": -0.0827090677462126
  },
  {
    "start_time": 229.86,
    "end_time": 237.16,
    "text": "to China for gas was zero for the fourth month in a row. In June of last year China bought",
    "confidence": -0.0827090677462126
  },
  {
    "start_time": 237.16,
    "end_time": 246.44,
    "text": "$90 million worth of U.S. coal. Now it's next to nothing there. China has diversified its commodities",
    "confidence": -0.0821841419606969
  },
  {
    "start_time": 246.44,
    "end_time": 253.68,
    "text": "imports. Russia and Saudi are big players for crude, and Russia again for natural gas.",
    "confidence": -0.0821841419606969
  },
  {
    "start_time": 255.26,
    "end_time": 261.42,
    "text": "The trade wars have done a lot of damage in a short time to American farms and our",
    "confidence": -0.0821841419606969
  },
  {
    "start_time": 261.42,
    "end_time": 269.72,
    "text": "exporters of soybeans and corn. Now the same is happening in energy, a decoupling of American",
    "confidence": -0.06880904000902933
  },
  {
    "start_time": 269.72,
    "end_time": 277.5,
    "text": "suppliers from Chinese demand. We assumed very wrongly that because China had always bought",
    "confidence": -0.06880904000902933
  },
  {
    "start_time": 277.5,
    "end_time": 284.56,
    "text": "our soybeans and our energy that they always would. This chart is almost impossible to believe.",
    "confidence": -0.06880904000902933
  },
  {
    "start_time": 285.82,
    "end_time": 293.08,
    "text": "October 2024 wasn't that long ago, and we probably assumed that China was dependent on us",
    "confidence": -0.12362656664492479
  },
  {
    "start_time": 293.08,
    "end_time": 302.62,
    "text": "for their supplies of coal, crude, and LNG. We thought they needed our LPG, or their plastics",
    "confidence": -0.12362656664492479
  },
  {
    "start_time": 302.62,
    "end_time": 310.14,
    "text": "industry would go out of business. So our political leadership needs a new perspective and fast on",
    "confidence": -0.12362656664492479
  },
  {
    "start_time": 310.14,
    "end_time": 316.86,
    "text": "this BRICS trading block. These are natural resource economies and their producer economies.",
    "confidence": -0.0709998549484625
  },
  {
    "start_time": 317.46,
    "end_time": 323.84,
    "text": "Taken together, the countries on this map pull easily enough energy out of the ground to keep",
    "confidence": -0.0709998549484625
  },
  {
    "start_time": 323.84,
    "end_time": 329.94,
    "text": "their lights on and their cars moving. They easily grow enough food to keep everyone fed.",
    "confidence": -0.0709998549484625
  },
  {
    "start_time": 331.2,
    "end_time": 336.7,
    "text": "China is the world's biggest manufacturer by far, and the BRICS countries pull enough",
    "confidence": -0.0709998549484625
  },
  {
    "start_time": 336.7,
    "end_time": 340.98,
    "text": "ores and metals out of the ground to send to China who can build everything they need.",
    "confidence": -0.21658969647956616
  },
  {
    "start_time": 344.12,
    "end_time": 347.04,
    "text": "This is Shaoxing. Be good.",
    "confidence": -0.21658969647956616
  },
  {
    "start_time": 368.64000000000004,
    "end_time": 370.2,
    "text": "Do you want others?",
    "confidence": -0.8290854744289232
  },
  {
    "start_time": 370.66,
    "end_time": 372.82,
    "text": "Do you want others to be in the picture?",
    "confidence": -0.8290854744289232
  },
  {
    "start_time": 376.42,
    "end_time": 379.08,
    "text": "Storm up yourself, treasure your heaven.",
    "confidence": -0.8290854744289232
  },
  {
    "start_time": 380.90000000000003,
    "end_time": 382.22,
    "text": "But where are your treasures?",
    "confidence": -0.8290854744289232
  },
  {
    "start_time": 383.14,
    "end_time": 383.88,
    "text": "There are where you are.",
    "confidence": -0.8290854744289232
  }
]